Explains: Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, 2026 edition, 21 Oct 2026
What does the UN mean when it says the world will overshoot 1.5°C?
The UN Environment Programme's 2026 Emissions Gap Report says warming will now pass 1.5°C before it can be brought back. It sets out the emission cuts needed for a return by 2100.
- Proposed
- Consultation
- Adopted21 Oct 2026
- In force
This is a published scientific assessment, not a law or rule. It creates no obligations. Governments use it as evidence when they negotiate and set their national climate plans.
AI-generated illustration
What happened
On 21 October 2026 the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published its yearly Emissions Gap Report, titled The Point of Return. It finds that keeping warming to 1.5°C without going over it first is no longer possible. It sets out how fast emissions would need to fall to bring temperatures back down to 1.5°C by 2100.
What the emissions gap is, and what overshoot means
Under the Paris Agreement, almost every country promised to help keep global warming well below 2°C and to try to limit it to 1.5°C. Each country writes its own climate plan, called a nationally determined contribution (NDC), saying how much it will cut its greenhouse gas emissions.
Every year UNEP adds up what those plans and current government policies would do to world emissions. It compares that with the emissions level scientists say is needed to meet the Paris temperature goals. The difference between the two is the emissions gap. A big gap means the promises fall well short of what the goals need.
This year's report says the chance of staying under 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot has been lost. Overshoot means temperatures rise above 1.5°C for a while and then come back down. To come back down, the world would need to cut emissions very fast and also take carbon dioxide out of the air and store it for good. This is called carbon dioxide removal.
UNEP's best case, which it calls the lowest-possible overshoot pathway, needs emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all compared with 2025. On that path, warming would peak at about 1.7 to 1.8°C around the middle of the century. There would then be about a 50% chance of getting back to 1.5°C or below by 2100.
The report also warns that the peak keeps rising the longer the world waits. It says every five years of carbon dioxide emissions at today's levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C.
What actually changes
| Area | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| The 1.5°C goal | The Paris Agreement asks countries to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C | UNEP says the opportunity for no or limited overshoot has been lost; the best case is now a temporary rise to 1.7–1.8°C and a return to 1.5°C by 2100 |
| Warming outlook | Last year's projections were lower | 2.8°C under current policies, 2.6°C if all NDCs are delivered, 2.1°C if net-zero targets are also met. UNEP says this is worse because of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of past emissions |
| Speed of cuts needed | Pathways in the IPCC's last assessment (AR6) needed cuts of about 5% a year | The lowest-overshoot path needs average cuts of 5.7% a year between 2025 and 2035 |
| Effect of new national plans | Countries have submitted new NDCs since last year's report | UNEP says the new NDCs made a negligible difference to the warming projections |
| Role of carbon removal | Staying under 1.5°C would not need temperatures to be brought back down | Returning to 1.5°C needs roughly 320 billion tonnes of CO2 removed and permanently stored this century, about eight years of 2024's global CO2 emissions |
Timeline
- 12 Dec 2015Paris Agreement adopted
Sets the goal of well below 2°C and efforts towards 1.5°C
- 21 Oct 2026Emissions Gap Report 2026 published
Launched in London by UNEP with ODI Global
- Today9 Nov 2026 · upcomingCOP31 opens in Türkiye
UN climate conference, running to 20 November 2026
- 2030 · upcomingFirst milestone on the lowest-overshoot path
Emissions 18% below 2025 levels
- 2035 · upcomingSecond milestone
Emissions 45% below 2025 levels
- 2040 · upcomingThird milestone
Emissions 69% below 2025 levels; coal power effectively phased out
- 2100 · upcomingReturn to 1.5°C
About a 50% chance on the lowest-overshoot path
Who it affects
National governments
The report is evidence for climate talks at COP31 and for the next round of national plans. UNEP says full delivery of today's NDCs would cut emissions only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, compared with 2025.
Energy and heavy industry
UNEP's pathway includes at least tripling renewable power capacity by 2035, cutting coal power at least 75% by 2035 compared with 2025, and phasing coal power out globally by 2040.
Companies and investors with climate targets
Many targets and climate scenarios are built around 1.5°C. The report describes 1.5°C pathways that now involve temporary overshoot and large amounts of carbon removal.
Methane emitters (oil and gas, farming, waste)
The pathway has methane at least 25% below 2025 levels by 2035 and at least 40% below by 2040.
A worked example
What the cuts mean for a country emitting 100 units in 2025
Imagine a country whose emissions in 2025 equal 100 units. Its climate plan matches the global average effect of today's NDCs that UNEP reports. The numbers are only for illustration.
- 01Lowest-overshoot path: 100 minus 18% = 82 units in 2030; 100 minus 45% = 55 units in 2035 (illustrative calc).
- 02Its NDC: a 5–8% cut gives 92–95 units in 2030; an 11–15% cut gives 85–89 units in 2035 (illustrative calc).
- 03The gap: 92–95 minus 82 = 10–13 units in 2030; 85–89 minus 55 = 30–34 units in 2035 (illustrative calc).
- 04Check on speed: cutting 5.7% a year for ten years leaves about 56 units, close to the 55 needed by 2035 (illustrative calc).
The gap grows from about a tenth of today's emissions in 2030 to about a third in 2035.
Illustrative only. Real countries differ widely, and UNEP's figures are global averages, not targets for any single country.
Common misreadings
The report says the Paris Agreement goals are finished.
UNEP says staying under 1.5°C without overshoot is no longer possible, but describes a path that returns warming to 1.5°C by 2100 with about a 50% chance. Its lead author Anne Olhoff says the world can still attain the Paris goals.
Overshoot means we stay above 1.5°C for good.
Overshoot means a temporary rise above 1.5°C followed by a fall. In UNEP's best case, warming peaks at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century and then comes down, which needs deep cuts plus carbon removal.
The new national climate plans submitted for 2035 have closed much of the gap.
UNEP says the new plans made a negligible difference. Full delivery would cut emissions only 11–15% by 2035, against 45% on the lowest-overshoot path.
What's still uncertain
- Whether the peak can be held at 1.7–1.8°C
- UNEP says this needs countries to start on the pathway now. It warns every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C.
- How much carbon removal is realistic
- The return to 1.5°C relies on roughly 320 billion tonnes of removal this century. UNEP says removal faces socioeconomic and technological challenges, including expensive and unproven technology, and should never replace emission cuts.
- Whether emissions have peaked
- UNEP says global emissions were roughly the same in 2025 as in 2024, but that it is too early to say they have peaked. Fossil CO2 emissions still rose in 2025.
For practitionersShow
Scope & thresholds
- Global assessment of the gap between projected emissions under current policies and NDCs and pathways consistent with Paris temperature goals.
- Pathway milestones are expressed relative to 2025 global emissions: −18% (2030), −45% (2035), −69% (2040) for the lowest-possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway.
- Projections: 2.8°C (current policies), 2.6°C (all NDCs delivered), 2.1°C (NDCs plus net-zero targets) this century.
- Modelling by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; chief scientific editor and lead author is Anne Olhoff, Director of the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre.
Key clauses
- Return pathway
- Peak of 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century, return to 1.5°C or below by 2100 with about a 50% chance; average reductions of 5.7% a year over 2025–2035.
- NDC assessment
- Full NDC implementation cuts emissions 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035 versus 2025; new NDCs made a negligible difference to projected warming.
- Global Stocktake extensions
- By 2035: at least triple renewable electricity capacity and cut primary energy intensity of GDP at least 30% versus 2025; by 2040: at least 4.5 times and at least 40%.
- Fossil fuels
- Coal, oil and gas shares of total energy supply down at least 55%, 15% and 5% by 2035, and at least 75%, 30% and 35% by 2040; coal power down at least 75% by 2035 and effectively phased out by 2040.
- Methane
- At least 25% below 2025 levels by 2035 and at least 40% below by 2040.
- Carbon dioxide removal
- Roughly 320 GtCO2 of removal and permanent storage over the century; not a substitute for emission reductions.
- Policy evidence
- More than 220 policy evaluations reviewed; electricity-sector policies cut emissions by an average of 9% and economic instruments by 5–13% across sectors in the periods studied.
What to do now
- Check whether climate scenarios used in planning or disclosure distinguish 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot from overshoot-and-return pathways.
- Review how far transition plans and net-zero claims depend on carbon dioxide removal, given UNEP's caution on cost and maturity.
- Compare internal 2030 and 2035 targets with the 18% and 45% global milestones (from a 2025 base) as a reference point, noting they are global averages.
- Track outcomes at COP31 (9–20 November 2026) and any updated NDCs.
Data you'll need
- Organisation's own 2025 emissions baseline, to compare with the report's 2025 reference year
- Scenario assumptions on peak warming, overshoot and removals
- Methane emissions where relevant to operations or supply chains
- Renewable electricity share and coal exposure in energy use
Primary documents
Key terms
- Emissions gap
- The difference between where world emissions are heading under current plans and where they need to be to meet the Paris temperature goals.
Practitioner note
UNEP reports it as the reductions needed by 2030, 2035 and 2040 versus what current NDCs deliver.
- Nationally determined contribution (NDC)
- A country's own climate plan under the Paris Agreement, setting out how it will cut emissions.
- Overshoot
- When warming goes above a temperature limit for a while, then comes back down.
Practitioner note
UNEP's lowest-possible overshoot pathway peaks at 1.7–1.8°C mid-century and returns to 1.5°C or below by 2100 with about 50% likelihood.
- Carbon dioxide removal
- Taking carbon dioxide out of the air and storing it, using trees and soils or technology that locks it underground or in rock.
- Net-zero target
- A goal to balance any remaining emissions with the same amount removed from the air, usually by a set year.
The UN's 2026 Emissions Gap Report says the world will now pass 1.5°C of warming before it can come back. Under today's policies warming heads for about 2.8°C. Returning to 1.5°C by 2100 would need emissions to fall 45% by 2035 from 2025 levels, plus large-scale carbon removal.
Sources
- New UNEP report lays out emission cuts needed for return to 1.5°C (press release) — UN Environment Programme, 21 Oct 2026
- As temperatures spike, this new report outlines humanity's options for containing climate change — UN Environment Programme, 21 Oct 2026
- Emissions Gap Report 2026 (repository record) — UN Environment Programme
- Emissions Gap Report 2026 launch event — UN Environment Programme, 21 Oct 2026
- UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 — PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 21 Oct 2026
- UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026: 1.5°C overshoot inevitable — UN Regional Information Centre, 21 Oct 2026
This explainer was written with AI assistance and checked against the primary documents listed above. How we work